← Store Championship at Final Cut TCG
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Store Championship at Final Cut TCG
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
0-6-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
22.2%
avg ELO -14.8 per match
expected value
36.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1179
· median 1179
· range 1179–1179
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1233
Q3 1416
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 47.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 19.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 19.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
